Covid News Around the World One Year Later

COVID is of course a strain of the flu variant. This is in the same strain as that to the Spanish Flu that killed.
The 1918 Spanish influenza lasted from 1918 to 1920 and consisted of four waves.

The first wave lasted approximately from 15 February 1918 to 1 June 1918;
the second wave lasted approximately from 1 August 1918 to 2 December 1918;
the third wave lasted approximately from 3 December 1918 to 30 April 1919;
the fourth wave lasted approximately from 1 December 1919 to 30 April 1920.

It infected about 500 million people, roughly one-third of the world’s population at that time, and resulted in the deaths of 50 million, including 675,000 Americans.

The first public news of the epidemic appeared in Madrid on 22 May 1918 in Madrid’s ABC newspaper; hence, it became known as the Spanish influenza. However, there is no definite evidence of origination, and most epidemiologists and virologists believe that the virus originated in either the USA or France.

Comparison between COVID-19 and 1918 influenza:

While the 1918 influenza killed a disproportionate number of 25–40 year olds, COVID-19 mostly affects those over the age of 65, especially those also with comorbidities.

In particular, the mortality rate for the influenza rose to 8%–10% for younger people compared with a 2.5% overall mortality whereas the mortality rate for the 25–40-year-old age range is a mere 0.2% in contrast to the 2.4% overall mortality rate.

Those aged 25–40 year olds accounted for 40% of deaths from the 1918 influenza, whereas those in the 18–44-year-old range account for only 3.9% of deaths from COVID-19.

More countries were spared in the 1918 pandemic, whereas only the smaller Pacific Islands (Soloman Islands and Vanuata) remain COVID-19 free.

The mortality rate for pregnant women with the Spanish influenza was 23%–37% and 26% of those who survived lost their child, whereas the mortality rate of pregnant women with COVID-19 is unknown.

The Spanish influenza resulted in acute illness in 25%–30% of the world population, with over 50 million deaths, whereas COVID-19 has infected nearly 55 million to date, with 1.3 million deaths.

In the USA alone, COVID-19 cases are at over 11 million as of 16 November 2020, which is nearly a 40% increase from the month prior.

Second, the two diseases kill via different mechanisms. While those with the influenza died of secondary bacterial pneumonia, those with COVID-19 died from an overactive immune response that resulted in multiple organ failure.

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) can develop in both cases.

As a complication from the influenza, ARDS had an 100% fatality rate compared with a 53.4% mortality rate as a complication from COVID-19.

The projected economic impact of COVID-19 on the US economy alone is a $5.76–$6.17 trillion decrease in gross domestic product (GDP), based on Fitch Ratings and the US GDP according to the World Bank. The economic data during the 1918 pandemic is scarce, but it was noted that Mexico suffered a $9 billion loss.

When one considers that in 1918 there were none of the public information systems such as the internet etc so news of the disease as it spread was telegram and little else!!
Here we are today with everything at our fingertips and we seem to have a comparison building up, on level playing fields as 1918.

Thank God for so many talented physicians today who together, came up with the vaccines that would have made Marie Curie so proud!!!!

And Einstein by perfecting time travel for the long term testing while they were at it :)

Anecdotal evidence is no evidence at all. There was a flu season, it was just mixed in with Covid. It was lower than usual but that's because of the shutdown and social distancing. Had nothing to do with the masks. Masks were extensively tested when SARS was a threat. N95 masks were shown to be the absolute minimum for any type of effectiveness and that was only if they were worn properly. Cloth masks have zero effect of stopping the virus. What should have been done and what would have worked just as well or even better is only those who had symptoms of any type wear a mask, or better yet, stay home. Cloth masks do have the benefit of stopping large water droplets which can reduce the spread.

But here in the states, they were afraid that people wearing masked would be ostracized and we just can't have that. Everyone has to be the same.

I managed to get a cold in the middle of the complete shutdown, minimum store visits and mask wearing. Had three actually over the main phase of the pandemic. I have a fourth now. There are over 200 causes of the common cold and four of them are corona viruses which could be causing false positives in many people.

The 1918 Flu was spread around the world by troops during and returning from WW1. The transport and hygene standards of the time made it easy.
After WW1 the returning troops would probably have stayed in their home country for the most part. The lack of travel opportunity was helpful in slowing down the virus and the development of herd immunity, as well as slowing down development of different variants.


Today we have better general hygene; but international travel is so easy and normal these days; that it's let the virus spread virtually everywhere.
This means we are faced with different mutations and will likely keep it going longer than the 1918 pandemic. Vaccinations will reduce the death rates; but it's not over yet!

The fear and discomfort that a possible reality evokes is in direct proportion to its unpleasantness, and to the urgency that it be confronted and understood.

:wave:

Not much Covid talk in Pennsylvania these days. Most of the news seems to be coming out of California where a few counties are implementing mask mandates again. Sherriff came out yesterday and said he isn't going to enforce them because there's no scientific data that they actually work and it goes against current CDC guidelines. Some continued fear mongering that the Delta strain is going to do this and do that but so far none of it has materialized. Vaccination rates in US have slowed dramatically, it seems everyone that wants to get vaccinated has and the government pressure isn't working.

Businesses are still being disrupted dramatically and no one seems to have a handle on why. Construction futures plummeted recently yet prices remain high. I personally ordered a bunch of windows 12 weeks ago. Was told they would take 10 weeks to arrive. Initially pushed back to August 2nd and then with no real explanation why January of next year. My supplier contacted another company and this one will deliver them in four weeks. We cancelled and moved the order. The first company says they can't get glass made, but the second company is having no problems. Nor are several other window companies. I have door orders that keep getting pushed back also. Yesterday I purchased a 12' 2x6 that cost $26, about three times what it should so prices not coming down yet.

One thing that's happening is the lumber yards bought all this stuff at the high prices and they need to sell it before they can get new in at the lower prices. But I think a lot of companies now stopped buying to wait on the lower prices. I've been working time and materials this entire time to protect myself from the price increases.

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Originally Posted by Aragorn243

they need to sell it before they can get new in at the lower prices.

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They should be dropping, volume sales will dull the loss. Just the cost of doing business v/s losing business.

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Originally Posted by browningautorifle

They should be dropping, volume sales will dull the loss. Just the cost of doing business v/s losing business.

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I was wondering about that today when I picked up some lumber. An 8' 2x12 was $56. Current price on an 8' 2x4 is $10. They were around $2 when the pandemic started. I don't think these prices can be sustained at all yet wandering around the yard today, they are fully stocked now. I'm expecting Home Depot and Lowes will be cutting prices first and more dramatically and that's where the business will go. I know I will go there. I normally do anyway but this is a local time and materials job and my labor costs for driving to Lowes would be cost prohibitive.

So when do they take the loss to keep the business. What I see is they have hired a lot of new people, cut hours, closed on Saturdays and yet they can't get my windows and doors on time. It's a little aggravating.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Aragorn243

So when do they take the loss to keep the business.

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I'm wondering too, it should be soon according to economist theory.

I am now waiting for tens of thousands of maskless looters in SA to start dropping like flies after the hundreds of super spreader events they partook in 7 to 10 days ago. Unfortunately that is not going to happen as what people are being led to believe about masks and virus spread and the severity of the virus is not correct. And I am sure you will be hard pressed to find even 10 amongst the lot who have had the shots.
I also had close contact with lots of maskless uninjected people that responded with me to the situation. We walked and stood in groups, we waited in vehicles with other people, etc. And nobody sanitized after helping someone else get their gear on.
The rioting and looting had a number of combined root causes. One of them was this whole covid mismanaged (worldwide) f...up that caused people to lose their jobs and slide into poverty even further (further because they were already there due to the communist/socialist government the world forced unto the country).
So lets see. The next two weeks are sure to have the streets filling up with virus infested bodies if everything people are being told and are forced into doing is true.