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  1. #11
    Legacy Member Frederick303's Avatar
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    Aragorn243,

    We live not that far apart, you are north of me by a wee bit but I would expect our paths might actually cross at places like the Forks of the Delaware, mount Bethel and perhaps Leesport or Harrisburg. I will say there are some areas which are kind of silly this year in my area, such as K98K and K31 rifles, but certainly not in Enfields.

    I would agree that the prices asked at shows can be silly. I would agree that the asking numbers are huge compared to say a decade ago when the stuff was coming in. But the actual sales prices are not where near as high as Gunbroker and actually falling compared to what I saw just a few years ago. Now I have worked both sides of the isle and every two to three years have a table at the Allentown forks show, including early this year.. How is this for high prices:

    Irish Lee Enfield SMLE MK I*** ER prefix. with a MK III stock but everything else correct including the rear MK I handguard. no interest at 425

    UF55A No 4 MK II gun. Like new. No interest at 535, not at 495, but final sold it at 455, but to get the sale threw in a nice FAL sling.

    Had a K11, ended up selling it for 275 to move it, no interest at 285 price. Nice gun too.

    Had a private JG96/11, rare gun as it was not cut for the stripper clip guide. Best offer 255., kept it pending a gunbroker listing where it might generate more interest.

    1858 brass framed Remington, nice gun with a great patina, had to move it at 130 to get a sale, with left hand holster.

    Did move two K31 rifles at 705 each, with bayonet/scabbards with serials close to rifles (same issue years) but had to use gunbroker to do that, no one locally wanted them at 435 each (with sling muzzle cover, M1918 bayonet and frog), so yes some areas are hot right now on the internet.

    Also did some buying this year. Got a nice Parker 1861 contract musket with a re-tubed barrel for 900. This was a early one (forget barrel maker) but actually made to the real original bore dimensions. Mint bore. You could not have gotten such for that price a decade ago when black powder shooting was much more healthy. A C block P38 mismatch (meaning a factory trophy assembled gun) for 500. A 1889 made M81 Vetterli for 60 bucks at a yard sale (rusty but cleaned up nice). Finally a 1970 S&W 28-2 for 400. Oh yes last year late I got a 1938 M1903 "special target" with a replaced 1942 SA barrel for 550. For the most part these deals sought me out, I was not the first to see them by any means, there really is not a lot of cash out there. When I look at Gunbroker listings I see many guns with high reserves that do not sell and stay on for months before being pulled.

    The way I see it the high prices on the internet have set up a Mexican stand off between buyer and sellers. Everyone wants to set a new high on gunbroker. Folks ask too much at shows. No one comes to shows. So you can pick off good deals at shows if you talk to people and give good deals to get good deals.

    In any case I see plenty of over priced Mil-Surplus but they do not move. That is what I see. I also see fewer and fewer collectors at the shows. That is why I saw prices will not climb long term. I also can look at demographics:

    Baby boomers (1946 to 1964) were a 76 million cohort, Generation X were a 68.5 million cohort (1965 to 1983), Millennials are a 73 million cohort (1984 to 2002).

    Not only are the numbers falling but the racial mixture is changing. Baby boomers were 85 % white, Gen X was closer to 75% and Millennials around 63%. Of course it is horrid and beastly of me to notice, but white males show a lot more interest in weapons of the European mid 20th century suicide wars than Asians, Blacks and Hispanics. It is just reality, though no one is supposed to notice. In terms of disposable income Gen X is not as well off as Boomers, and Millenials have been crapped on being even less flush than Gen x.

    So pure numbers demographic interest and cash all tend towards fewer collectors coming up for our obsolete military rifles/arms. Maybe not today, but I can safely say as I watch my older baby boomers (birth years from 1948 to 1959) try to sell their arms they are getting no where the interest or money they would like nor is the situation likely to get better as time goes by. let there be no doubt, there are very large collections accumulated by Baby boomers that will have to be disposed of in the coming 2 decades and they will sell for less than the current prices in real dollar terms.

    Oh by the way if you doubt that, it matches the similar decline and death of competitive rifle shooting. Come to a BCF&G Swissicon rifle match and I can show you the trends over decades, I have the record to back it up. What I write of is real.

    Patience is a virtue right now.

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    Thread Starter
    Quote Originally Posted by Frederick303 View Post
    Oh, by the way what do you consider a cheap K31icon? I ask as I am in a club and deals come my way all the time in K31, JG11 and more commonly, K11 rifles.

    If you have a C&R they can be sent directly too you.
    Haha well I guess for the K31 would be under 400$, the reason why I asked for the said above is that I have only 180 bucks to spend right now plus some help if I need a loan, and plus I just love the older weapons.

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    Legacy Member BruceHMX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frederick303 View Post
    So pure numbers demographic interest and cash all tend towards fewer collectors coming up for our obsolete military rifles/arms. Maybe not today, but I can safely say as I watch my older baby boomers (birth years from 1948 to 1959) try to sell their arms they are getting no where the interest or money they would like nor is the situation likely to get better as time goes by. let there be no doubt, there are very large collections accumulated by Baby boomers that will have to be disposed of in the coming 2 decades and they will sell for less than the current prices in real dollar terms.
    Are you speaking of run of the mill milsurps or highly collectable items? For instance all matching, minty Long Lee's, WW1 and WW2 Enfield's that have never been FTR'ed or messed with or up graded, or high end S&W's such as K-32's, Registered Magnums, and I could go on and on. IMHO the really nice stuff will continue to climb and yes there are people from all of those generations that will continue to love and cherish the really nice museum grade collectables. I also think demographics play a part in this and yes the job and stock market. Naturally if you don't have a well paying job you can't play but if both of those items are going well you are still going to have folks that are still attracted to these items. Another thought is yes guys like me will die off but I can't see someone at a flea market buying a minty Long Lee for $400. Might happen but if you have your stuff together plans have been made to dispose of your collection without the family member just dumping it so to speak. I know I have everything documented to include hard to find parts, accessories as well as firearms. The UF55A you speak of would bring around $750 here and I have seen it happen recently. Again this is my opinion and I for sure hope my K-32's don't bring $500, but then again I had fun shooting and collecting them and when I'm gone guess I won't care.

    ---------- Post added at 07:34 PM ---------- Previous post was at 07:30 PM ----------

    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Prather View Post
    Haha well I guess for the K31icon would be under 400$, the reason why I asked for the said above is that I have only 180 bucks to spend right now plus some help if I need a loan, and plus I just love the older weapons.
    Like everyone has said hang loose and keep putting your funds together, do your research and you will find something nice. If you need some advice forums like this will help.

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    Legacy Member Frederick303's Avatar
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    Seth,

    $180 today is the equivalent of $129 in 2001. That is less than the first K31 batch wholesale price that came in around that time. True the price quickly dipped to around 89.99 dollars wholesale, but prior Swissicon arms and ammunition were rare and costly. The only source of ammunition was Norma at around a buck a round. The rifles were not cheap either, pre 2000. For example I paid 200 in 1998 for a K11, which is the equivalent of $303 today and was a good deal at the time, prior to the mass importation of K31 rifles. It was bought so my father's Swiss M1914 knife bayonet would have a rifle to fit it, he paid $1.35 for it at a surplus store around 1965.

    If you are looking to find rifles at the same price as when they were mass imported, well sorry that will not occur. I felt the same way you did in 1982, when I had to pay 75 dollars for rifles that had sold for $15 to $25 just 15 years before in 1967 and hearing what were old timers to me talk about the good old days when they mailed them to your house, no questions asked. Looking at the old American rifleman that were about, the Carcanos at $12.95 made my 35 to 57 dollar deals seem highway robbery. In 1983 I was outraged that a miss-match K98K was 90 to 100 dollars, (Springfield M1903s at around 105) but eventually I yielded to buy a matching DOU 1944 for 125 in 1989. At the time it seemed like just a fair deal. But here I am 35 years later with a collection far better than I ever expected to have, on paper at least worth 5 times what I paid for it.

    There are still deals out there and there will be more in the years to come, if for no other reason then demographics. Not to mention anything new made is cheaper in real terms than in my day. For example my first AR15SP1, used cost me 400 in 1984, which is the equivalent of 950 today, when a nice AR15 can be had for around 400 or less today. If this administration continues, at some point the floodgates will open for one more surplus period, as the last major obsolete arm lots from Korea, Thailand, Burma, Turkeyicon, Algeria, Cuba, Russiaicon, Vietnam and India flow into the US. Lesser condition for sure, but you may well live to see it. As a young chap in 1981/2 I had no expectation surplus arms would ever be importable again, and yet thy were only 3 years later.

    Finally there are deals right now, but not in the popular guns. For example Spanish civil war arms are still cheap, easy to research with some at 250 and under. Mosin 91 and 91/30 rifles can still be found in the 250 range if you network. Save your money, research and read , make your list and happy hunting. believe it or not, but the hunt is more than half the fun, and worn treasures that it takes work to acquire have far more value during your lifetime than purchases made on the whim of the moment when your wallet is flush. My first real firearm purchase, a M93 Turk Mauser purchased for 70 dollars from Springfield Sporters in September 1982 is still in my possession, valued and in a place if honor; despite the fact the bore is well worn and the bolt a mismatch. That rifle is wrapped up with many family memories, is subjectively worth more than the most complete K31 collection possible today.

    BruceMHX,

    I agree, the top notch items will always bring a premium, but the lesser items that the vast majority of us collect and shoot will not appreciate at anywhere near the last 12 years, and in fact will likely drop in constant dollar terms, for reasons spoken of prior. but the rare items will likely rise in real dollar terms.
    Last edited by Frederick303; 11-27-2017 at 09:17 PM.

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    Affordable fireams

    I side with antiqucycle... I had some milsurp stuff that I didn't need any more, so I took a table at a local gunshow and notice the amount of "bring ins" there were and at the shows last days end I ended up with info from two guys that wanted to disperse their gun inventories.
    The total number of guns in the two contacts is 45
    I am going to look at one contact on Friday who has several Mausers and " had them in the closet for years". Might be junk, but ???? I get to look!
    One I DID get was on Craig's List, a bring back, a S/27 1938 8mm with an original sling and every part including the front sight and firing pin with the serial number! I had to give up $400.
    Like was said earlier in this thread... Have the bucks in your pocket and keep looking, they are still out there, Waiting

    Gil

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frederick303 View Post
    Seth,

    $180 today is the equivalent of $129 in 2001.

    If you are looking to find rifles at the same price as when they were mass imported, well sorry that will not occur. I felt the same way you did in 1982, when I had to pay 75 dollars for rifles that had sold for $15 to $25 just 15 years before in 1967 and hearing what were old timers to me talk about the good old days when they mailed them to your house, no questions asked.

    BruceMHX,

    I agree, the top notch items will always bring a premium, but the lesser items that the vast majority of us collect and shoot will not appreciate at anywhere near the last 12 years, and in fact will likely drop in constant dollar terms, for reasons spoken of prior. but the rare items will likely rise in real dollar terms.
    We all long for "the old days". Heck, I remember 5¢ candy bars too. What are they now $1 or more. Inflation would only put them around 40¢

    First off, the imports usually were/are not always in the greatest condition. Most guys I know bought them for a low price and then changed parts to make them the way they wanted. Adding to their initial cost.

    Quality collector pieces have traditionally gone up. I collect M1icon Carbine. Yes, DCM sold them for $20 delivered in 1960. Using an inflation calculator the is $165 today. Forget the original cost back in the day, try and even find one for todays inflation price of $165, not a chance. They have doubled in price about every nine years. Today a nice original M1 Carbine pushes $2,000 and higher. Imports started coming in during the late 80's with stamps on the barrels at around $100 which is $206 today, and have done about the same. Today selling in the $800-$1,000.

    They can be a good investment. Though I feel we mostly collect them because we just want to.

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    Legacy Member BruceHMX's Avatar
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    They can be a good investment. Though I feel we mostly collect them because we just want to.
    (My thoughts exactly) A calming effect after a hard day at work can come home into my office/gun room. Sit down with a beer, get on line and have so much history sitting around you.

    IMG_0057 by bigsargee7, on Flickr

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    interesting thread, I also have the same question

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