When it really happens: SHTF...

[mrclark303]

Lot of mixed messages here. A talk show host is essentially saying this is cured with the malaria treatment. No one else is supporting that statement although Trump seems to be indicating it is at the objection of his health advisor. He's also saying this will not last months without going into details on why. I understand his position. There comes a point where the economy is more important than the lives of a small number of people. Not to be cruel but we cannot go back to the stone age because of this, what's the point, and we wouldn't survive anyway. Where is the fine line where more people die from the economy than the virus.

I would like to think he is going to force the FDA's hand and start using these drugs for treatment, they work and this is over is weeks rather than months or years. But we don't know that. Not knowing is the biggest issue I have. I am content to sit in my house for a few weeks, maybe a month but not six months. There has to be a point where we return to function.

The problem is this, any country that doesn't 'systematically' eradicate this virus will be effectively quarantined from the rest of the world, as after putting in huge efforts and paying a massive price, they simply won't let another country re-infect them.

[Surpmil]

The problem is this, any country that doesn't 'systematically' eradicate this virus will be effectively quarantined from the rest of the world, as after putting in huge efforts and paying a massive price, they simply won't let another country re-infect them.

If I remember the comments of the epidemiologists I've seen speak online, short of a vaccine, the only way for epidemics like this to pass is for enough people to contract them and recover that widespread immunity simply deprives the virus of new "places to go" and it tapers off.

The virus is mutating so the value of a vaccine would be questionable in any case, unless one owned shares in the company producing it.

[Gil Boyd]

Put this into the mix for educational purposes and show how other countries seem to fair:

Cuba's health service has a good rep that will never be mentioned in the Western press. They have a drug that can help with Covid19.

COVID-19 surged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late December 2019 and by January 2020 it had hit Hubei province like a tidal wave, swirling over China and rippling out overseas. The Chinese state rolled into action to combat the spread and care for those infected. Among the 30 medicines the Chinese National Health Commission selected to fight the virus was a Cuban anti-viral drug Interferon Alpha 2b. This drug has been produced in China since 2003, by the enterprise ChangHeber, a Cuban-Chinese joint venture.


Cuban Interferon Alpha 2b has proven effective for viruses with characteristics similar to those of COVID-19. Cuban biotech specialist, Dr Luis Herrera Martinez explained that ‘its use prevents aggravation and complications in patients, reaching that stage that ultimately can result in death.’ Cuba first developed and used interferons to arrest a deadly outbreak of the dengue virus in 1981, and the experience catalysed the development of the island’s now world-leading biotech industry.


The world’s first biotechnology enterprise, Genetech, was founded in San Francisco in 1976, followed by AMGen in Los Angeles in 1980. One year later, the Biological Front, a professional interdisciplinary forum, was set up to develop the industry in Cuba. While most developing countries had little access to the new technologies (recombinant DNA, human gene therapy, biosafety), Cuban biotechnology expanded and took on an increasingly strategic role in both the public health sector and the national economic development plan. It did so despite the US blockade obstructing access to technologies, equipment, materials, finance and even knowledge exchange. Driven by public health demand, it has been characterised by the fast track from research and innovation to trials and application, as the story of Cuban interferon shows.


Interferons are ‘signalling’ proteins produced and released by cells in response to infections which alert nearby cells to heighten their anti-viral defences. They were first identified in 1957 by Jean Lindenmann and Aleck Isaacs in London. In the 1960s Ion Gresser, a US-researcher in Paris, showed that interferons stimulate lymphocytes that attack tumours in mice. In 1970s, US oncologist Randolph Clark Lee, took up this research.


Catching the tail end of US President Carter’s improved relations with Cuba, Dr Clark Lee visited Cuba, met with Fidel Castro and convinced him that interferon was the wonder drug. Shortly afterwards, a Cuban doctor and a haematologist spent time in Dr Clark Lee’s laboratory, returning with the latest research about interferon and more contacts. In March 1981, six Cubans spent 12 days in Finland with the Finnish doctor Kari Cantell, who in the 1970s had isolated interferon from human cells, and had shared the breakthrough by declining to patent the procedure. The Cubans learned to produce large quantities of interferon.


Within 45 days of returning to the island, they had produced their first Cuban batch of interferon, the quality of which was confirmed by Cantell’s laboratory in Finland. Just in time, it turned out. Weeks later Cuba was struck by an epidemic of dengue, a disease transmitted by mosquitos. It was the first time this particularly virulent strand, which can trigger life-threatening dengue haemorrhagic fever, had appeared in the Americas. The epidemic affected 340,000 Cubans with 11,000 new cases diagnosed every day at its peak. 180 people died, including 101 children. The Cubans suspected the CIA of releasing the virus. The US State Department denied it, although a recent Cuban investigation claims to provide evidence that the epidemic was introduced from the US.


Cuba’s Ministry of Public Health authorised the use of Cuban interferon to halt the dengue outbreak. It was done at great speed. Mortality declined. In their historical account, Cuban medical scientists Caballero Torres and Lopez Matilla wrote: ‘It was the most extensive prevention and therapy event with interferon carried out in the world. Cuba began to hold regular symposia, which quickly drew international attention’. The first international event in 1983 was prestigious; Cantell gave the keynote speech and Clark attended with Albert Bruce Sabin, the Polish American scientist who developed the oral polio vaccine.


Convinced about the contribution and strategic importance of innovative medical science, the Cuban government set up the Biological Front in 1981 to develop the sector. Cuban scientists went abroad to study, many in western countries. Their research took on more innovative paths, as they experimented with cloning interferon. By the time Cantell returned to Cuba in 1986, the Cubans had developed the recombinant human Interferon Alfa 2b which has benefited thousands of Cubans since then. With significant state investment, Cuba’s showpiece Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) was opened in 1986. By then Cuba was submerged in another health crisis, a serious outbreak of Meningitis B, which further spurred Cuba’s biotechnology sector.


Cuba’s Meningitis Miracle


In 1976, Cuba was struck by meningitis B and C outbreaks. Since 1916 only a few isolated cases had been seen on the island. Internationally, vaccines existed for Meningitis A and C, but not for B. Cuban health authorities secured a vaccine from a French pharmaceutical company to immunise the population against type C Meningitis. However, in the following years, cases of type B Meningitis began to rise. A team of specialists from different medical science centres was established, led by a woman biochemist, Concepción Campa, to work intensively on finding a vaccine.


By 1984 Meningitis B had become the main health problem in Cuba. After six years of intense work, Campa’s team produced the world’s first successful Meningitis B vaccine in 1988. A member of Campa’s team, Dr Gustavo Sierra recalled their joy: ‘this was the moment when we could say it works, and it works in the worst conditions, under pressure of an epidemic and among people of the most vulnerable age.’ During 1989 and 1990, three million Cubans, those most at risk, were vaccinated. Subsequently, 250,000 young people were vaccinated with the VA-MENGOC-BC vaccine, a combined Meningitis B and C vaccination. It recorded 95% efficacy overall, with 97% in the high-risk three months to six years age group. Cuba’s Meningitis B vaccine was awarded a UN Gold Medal for global innovation. This was Cuba’s meningitis miracle.


‘I tell colleagues that one can work 30 years, 14 hours a day just to enjoy that graph for 10 minutes,’ Agustin Lage, Director of the Centro for Molecular Immunology (CIM) told me, referring to an illustration of the rise and sudden fall of Meningitis B cases in Cuba. ‘Biotechnology started for this. But then the possibilities of developing an export industry opened up, and today, Cuban biotechnology exports to 50 countries.’


Since its first application to combat dengue fever, Cuba’s interferon has shown its efficacy and safety in the therapy of viral diseases including Hepatitis B and C, shingles, HIV-AIDS and dengue. Because it interferes with viral multiplication within cells, it has also been used in the treatment of different types of carcinomas. Time will tell if Interferon Alfa 2b proves to be the wonder drug as far as COVID-19 goes.

[mrclark303]

An interesting read Gil, perhaps a mix of social isolation, Growing herd immunity and anti vital drugs will eventually do the job.

[GeeRam]

Lot of mixed messages here. A talk show host is essentially saying this is cured with the malaria treatment. No one else is supporting that statement although Trump seems to be indicating it is at the objection of his health advisor. He's also saying this will not last months without going into details on why.

Sadly, as you say, the USA's spiraling stats don't bear out any evidence of this wonder cure....but what does a talk show host know

Trump is saying it will not last months because of fear of spooking the markets and people, but this is counter-productive, as it promotes too much blase attitude among people not taking it seriously enough, as witnessed by the young, old and feckless buggering off to the beaches or generally not heeding the advice about social distancing and thereby creating more of a problem.....which will conversely have an even bigger impact on the economy when it becomes clear just what a **** storm this is. It will be too late by then though.

I'm so glad I moved out of London just after Christmas, I would hate to be where I used to live with this all happening.

[Ovidio]

Its fair to say, the WORLD will be a different place when this is all over. Kissing and shaking hands will, I think take a secondary place in future!!

Gil...I really hope not. I’m not the stereotypical Italian who hugs and kisses everybody, but a nice, strong and friendly handshake, and a slap on the shoulder, are just so good to give and receive...
I’d be sad if people got even more distant than they already are.

[usabaker]

They have a drug that can help with Covid19.

MAY help, there is no evidence yet by the Cubans or the World Health Orginzation.

"Four drugs or drug combinations already licensed and used for other illnesses will be tested, said WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. Ten countries have already indicated they will take part in the trial.

The mere fact the WHO is sponsoring the trial suggests that efforts in China to test these drugs may not have come up with enough data to indicate whether any were of use to prevent patients from developing severe disease or save those with severe disease from death."

Reference: STAT WHO to launch multinational trial to jumpstart search for coronavirus drugs

[Aragorn243]

The goal in the US is to get large sections of the nation up and running by Easter. Not everywhere and with Cuomo in charge, NY will cease to exist with a wall built around it by the surrounding states. I personally don't know if that is a realistic goal but time will tell. There are huge areas which have no cases. We are a large nation.

My county is up to 10 cases today. We are not doubling each day even with increased testing and 7 total deaths in the state, none here.

The "cure" that was mentioned does seem to be effective, it simply has not been approved and is not in widespread use. Only a few doctors are doing it, possibly without FDA approval or with approval as they are dire cases who may not survive otherwise. According to these doctors and the patients who received it, 5 days is all it takes for complete elimination.

[shadycon]

Again: "The best folks on the internet"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Flying10uk]

My main concern is other family members, getting the virus, currently living in the same house as myself who I would class as "vulnerable" and "extremely vulnerable" and that is why I insist that they stay more than 2m away from me inside my own house. When this is all over I don't want to find that I have lost all or most of my immediate family. My line of thought is that at some point I will get the "virus" but I need to try and delay it as long as possible when, hopefully, the treatments are better.

Thinking of possible ways of reducing or delaying the risk of getting the virus, I thought that somewhere where perhaps I should wear protection is my local supermarket when I buy my groceries. Personally I would be perfectly happy to walk into my local supermarket in a full NBC suit and respirator, carrying my shopping basket but I did wonder if this may alarm others. Short of wearing a full NBC suit or a Hazmat suit, to do my grocery shopping, the other alternative that I came up with was to wear the respirator that normally I use for spray painting that has both charcoal and P3 filters but no eye protection. However, I did still wonder if wearing a full blown respirator to do one's shopping may alarm other shoppers and, therefore, there was only one way to find out if it would be acceptable to the shop, to ask.

I entered the supermarket, with respirator stowed in backpack, and made for "customer services". I explained the current situation in my household to the young chap behind the counter of "customer services", expressed my concerns and then said "Would it be acceptable to this store if the next time that I come in to do my grocery shopping, I have the option of wearing a respirator and not just a dust mask but a full-blown respirator, which covers the mouth and nose but not the eyes? The shop employee replied "I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "respirator"." I replied "I'm not intending to wear full NBC protective equipment or a Hazmat suit just to do my shopping but I was wondering if it would be ok to wear the sort of respirator that you may wear to spay a car or do spray painting with certain types of paint." I then added that "I'm not intending to also spray a car while I'm in here to do my grocery shopping." The assistant then replied "I'd better ask my manager" and so the assistant phoned the manager and described the respirator to the manager after I had shown it to the assistant. The man from Del-monte (the shop manager) finally said yes it would be ok to wear a proper respirator to do one's shopping.