Gun Show Bust

[tlvaughn]

I have not been to a Gun Show in a few months so I decided to drive 1-1/2 hours to a show today. I did not see a single Enfield at today's show. As a matter of fact, I can count on one hand the number of milsurp rifles for sale. I have even noticed that a couple of the regular vendors have started to sell everything on-line and were not even at the show.

I did see a Bren Mk2 parts kit for $995 and a Wiselite Sterling Semi-auto for $465. It was not a complete waste of a trip though, I did come home with 96 rounds of .303 for $30.00.

I am hoping that the Enfield market has not dried up around me!!

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[spinecracker]

Sorry to hear that. I have noticed a dearth of good Lee Enfields in local gun shows over the past year. If you want US or Russian milsurps, then there is no shortage, though.

[BubbaTheKid]

I'm new to Enfields, sort of, I mean to say I recently acquire dmy first but have seen and shot them here and there over the years. They seem to be everywhere. As well prices vary widely dependingon whereone encounters them. It's almost as if they're not that desirable unless you're the odd bird who really wants one.

[Frederick303]

An observation from south-eastern PA on gun shows and the Enfield market:

It seems to me based on the last year of local and regional shows I have attended that there are a number of older sported Enfield Rifles in dubious condition that are very cheap. Most seem to someone’s old deer rifle. Most are common dates and configurations. Spare parts are not as cheap or as plentiful as they were a decade ago, making the decision to restore a rifle a much more dubious proposition. These rifles typically have less then stellar bores and really are not good candidates for restoration. These rifles are priced very low but do not seem to sell that often.

Less common, but still about are reasonable examples of surplus No1, No 3, No4 and No 5 rifles, not in the best of condition but still in decent enough condition to buy if you were looking for a representative example of such a rifle. The problem with these rifles is the price, pre 2004 they were 100 dollar or less rifles, now they seem to be priced in the 250 to 350 dollar region, at that price they will not sell very often. Added to that in the 2004 time frame ammunition was available at a reasonable price, now it is rare and difficult to find in plinking quantity for anything less then 50 to 60 cents a round.

The very nice higher end guns, 1955 No4 Mk II new rifles, excellent Longbranch rifles, like-new Savage South African marked No 4 rifles, like new Australian rifles etc are out there, but the asking prices are set by Gunbroker and as such are too high to typically sell at a show. The internet has affected sellers’ price expectations, and while it draws stuff out of closets for sale, deals one used to find at shows seem to be but a dim memory.

Stepping back and taking the long view (first show I attended was in 1984, 28 years ago) it seems to be the end of the cheap imports that allowed many of us to amass large collections very cheaply in the 1986 to 2006 time period. As there are no cheap imports the price has risen to reflect the limited supply. The economic slow down, which shows no sign of abatement here in PA despite the happy noise we hear out of the squawk box has drastically reduced the amount of play monies guys have. Prices seem high to an old timer but the appreciation has stalled and stabilized at a sufficiently high price to put off most impulse buyers. The current price point and lack of cheap shooting ammunition has halted new collectors from coming in to the market like they were in the 1984 to 2004 time period.

Now some of the dealers I am friends with are hoping that the centennial of WWI will change this and see the prices of WWI rifles climb again. I very much doubt it as the bad economy shows no sign of turning, at least where I live and I doubt that WWI will have the draw that the Civil war and WWII still enjoy. US M1903 Springfields in good condition are already very expensive and the young guys I know that are into historic arms are much more into WWII rifles then WWI rifles. Also US arms still seem to draw the majority of interest here in the US of A. There was no burst of interest in British arms with the centennial of the Boer war or Spanish arms with the centennial of the Spanish-American war, I doubt we will see many new collectors of English arms due to the WWI centennial, at least here on the east coast.

Getting back to the shows, I think that ultimately the really nice guns are increasingly going on Gunbroker. One of my dealer friends who is also a competitive shooter pretty much uses his shop to buy local guns to put on Gunbroker, he gets much more money and has a much faster turn around time. This has affected collectables to a great extent and is why I think one sees fewer uncommon rifles at decent prices at larger shows. Small shows where local guys can set up and sell there stuff still show deals from time to time, but as the Internet slowly takes over this will fade as sell, there simply are fewer and fewer folks that do not take advantage of the internet to price and sell their items.

One point of view to consider

[Mag Fed]

Frederick303,
Excellent analysis ! I agree and would add that your synopsis of the topic applies equally where I live.

[Frederick303]

A few more thoughts on old time Gun shows here in PA and those states that allow individual transfers without a great deal of hassle:

In the case of easy long arms sales (i.e. there is not a lot of expense or hassle as in PA), when there is cheap ammunition out there and significant amounts of inexpensive surplus rifles for sale, there are/were guys that buy guns just to shoot them, play with them and then sell them off to get the next gun. When Enfield’s were cheap guys would do just that, buy an Enfield, shoot it for a bit and then sell it off to buy the next play gun. The fact that Enfields were cheap and ammunition was around meant a large number of these guns went through those commercial paths. Those of us that collected rifles really benefited from this, as the guys that bought these guns were generally just looking to get their money back and not make a significant profit. Unless one had a local dealer that had a significant stock of Enfields (none in any place I have lived), such rifles either walking through local shows or on the tables of individuals was where one would have a chance to find those variants you did not have at a bargain prices. It was not that many years ago when a small show might have 5 to 8 Enfields for sale, either walking around or on someone’s table. At a large show such as Forks of the Delaware or Harrisburg the number might be quite staggering. As the asking prices were typically at or just slightly above what dealer could buy them from distributors for, they had little interest. The fact that some uncommon Enfields existed in the mass of Enfields for sale at such shows was overlooked by those that made their money by turning guns over for profit, leaving such arms to be picked over by the collectors. Before the internet sales picked up this was the only way for an Enfield collector to find uncommon stuff, and when you found a nice item it was generally very cheap.

Once cheap surplus ammunition stopped around 2005 and new rifle imports dried up around a year later this entire market mechanism stopped. The shooters moved on to Mosin-Nagants and other guns that could be bought and shot cheaply. Now there are always some guns coming on the market, but far fewer, and as there are no real imports dealers looking to build their stock up are looking at them as well. By the time a non-dealer gets to the show any real killer “deal” or rare Enfield variant is likely to have been picked up by a dealer who will sell it on Gunbroker. I see nothing wrong with that, it is the free market in action, but it has lead to the decline in deals at gun shows. There is still the occasional deal to be had, though they are now a rarity.

For a period it seemed that that the bad economy was helping as folks were selling off their less prized possessions and for many that meant the odd Enfield they had bought cheap years ago. Four plus years out from the start of the recession and this mechanism seems to have pretty much over. The nice guns coming out to shows are now from guys that know what they have; in those cases where they are selling for economic reasons they pretty much need to get the full freight the market will allow.

Now I have to say while the good old days are pretty much gone, Gunbroker has meant that items I had never seen in 20 years of going to shows are suddenly available. Yes you have to pay the going rate, but in the old days of shows alone often you would never even see such a rifle in person, except for the occasional museum. Further with sites such as this, the information that is out there is just incredible, even with all of the reference books (and I have them all) the knowledge available today dwarfs what was available even 10 years ago. All of that education is free. So one golden era is over and a new different yet just as interesting era has begun.

For the good old days of cheap guns and real deals at almost ever show to come back we need to see the last mother load of Enfield Rifles, the vast stocks held in India come onto the market. There are a lot of them, nearly a million and there must be significant stocks of shootable .303 still to be had on the Indian subcontinent. If that happens, Gun shows will pick up once again for the US-American Enfield collector.

[BubbaTheKid]

Looks like I'll keep going to Yard/Garage Sales and asking if they have any old Military stuff around... Do you guys have any thoughts on Yugo Capture K98 Mausers". Seems like German Mausers are price trending at about 800 to 1K and rising for non-matching parts while a refurbished (rebarreled sometimes) Yugo Capture K98 is about $300. Is this market Yugo Capture or even Russian Capture segment likely to see a price increase?

[Frederick303]

Go to the Gunboard forums and check out the Kar98K board. That site is where all the real K98K gurus hang out at.

[BubbaTheKid]

A good suggestion and something I have been doing already. For the record I'm not bagging on the Lee Enfield with the question here in anyway. I merely felt the thread was taking a conversational turn toward the generalalities of the overall Mil . Surp. Collecting in todays times & economy and posed a thought. I can keep it all Lee Enfield in this section of the board if I am commiting a Faux Pas de Noob.

[Frederick303]

Sir,

I was not chiding you in any way; it is just that unless there are a few die-hard Kar98K fans on this board, I doubt that any of us would have a real feel for the Kar98K and associated Mauser designs price points. I would note that rifle collecting in the internet age has become increasingly specialized. My reference to Gunboard forums was that of all the sites related to Kar98K rifles I have seen; that site seems to have the most authorities on the topic of German WWII rifles and associated Mauser rifles. I think that John Walls used to post on that site, and he is about the closest thing to Ian Skennerton that the Mauser Fans have. Of course I could be wrong, there may well be a better site, but given my limited knowledge on the topic I would go there if I wanted a serious question answered.

What little I know of that market is as follows:

The Russian capture and Yugo reworked K98K rifles have seen a similar rise in prices to the Enfield Rifles in the past 10 years. I seem to recall being able to buy really nice Russian captures and Yugo rifles around 1998~1999 for around 150 to 200 dollars, now I understand they are 350 to 400 (or slightly more) dollar rifles if the bore is indecent condition. Matching rifles that went for 500 dollars 10 years ago are now the 900 to 1200 dollar rifles, depending on the rarity and correctness of the rifle.

The really high money in Kar98K rifles in all matching, non-sanded examples with features that collectors want. Just as a correct 1941 Longbranch rifle with early features would draw a tidy sum, so too a similar dated Kar98K with what are considered rare features would draw a large sum of money, from what I have heard that sum can roughly be doubled for collectable German rifle compared to a equivalent British rifle. Post war issued rifles seem to have a lot less interest among the high end collectors and as such the prices for these rifles are markedly less, as is the price for mismatched rifles.

One of the main differences I have observed in German collecting is that the collectors all want to have rifles that are as close to original factory issued as possible. There is a similar mind set in US M1903 and M1 collectors. In that regard the Enfield collectors seem to be similar to the Mosin Nagant collectors, in as much as both fraternities seem to enjoy and value reworked rifles to a degree which is not present in the M1, Kar98K and M1903 collecting worlds. This seems to be related to three separate facets:

1) Enfield rifles path through the military world has can be traced through the copious markings that accompany issue and reworks, Kar98K rifles did not seem to have similar marking applied, very little is known about the rework facilities and markings applied. Because of various scandals, reported data in the main reference book (Laws books) is subject to some debate.

2) The fact that many details of Enfield use have been revealed by armourers like Peter Laidler of the UK, Kim Williams of New Zealand, an armourer that used to post by the name of Smith (forget first name) from Australia, as well as a few folks that have posted with armourer experience from Canada and Ireland (not necessarily on this site, I am thinking back to the days of the old Gun and Knife forum). The few postings from a single German WWII armourer I know of have all been second hand(related by his nephew) and given that these early 2000’s posting were 55 year old recollections, very limited in the usable detail. There are no similar detailed first hand authorities available for the Kar98K folks like we have had in the past 15 years for the Enfield; hence that aspect of the rifle’s history has been largely lost, leaving condition and originality of markings to be the primary determination of value.

3) The Enfield saw wide use after WWII and Enfield collectors are interested in this post war history, whereas the primary association and interest in Kar98K collectors seem to be the use of this rifle in the second great international debate. Thus a 1943 Fazakerley with a post WWII South African markings would be seen a very interesting collectable in Enfield quarters with no loss in value and perhaps a very slight premium to the right guy, where as a 1943 BYF Mauser that had been cut for a French sling post war would be seen a lesser example compared to a similar non-post war modified BYF Kar98K. I have actually seen Kar98K collectors sneer at such rifles, something I have never seen in Enfield collecting.

Because the prices have generally been a lot higher in the Kar98K world, (at least until recently) and the price of rifles is so dependent on being “factory original” there seems to be a lot more faking going on in the Kar98K world, mostly related to assembling “matching rifles”. At shows you will see folks trying to find Mauser parts with the serial number that they need to correct a mismatched K98K. You will note on the websites devoted to K98K discussions on what the correct serial number sequences should be (4 digit, last two digit or no digits at all) v.s. the year of production. You will also see discussions on what venders supplied what company, as if the waffenampt marking is off or the factory code is on that is not seen on that manufacturers rifle, then the rifle is not matching and the price falls drastically. The discussions on the blue and how to tell the correct finish are very detailed. As such unless you really know your rifles I think it is a lot easier to get badly burned in Kar98K collecting if you are buying “correct” rifles. The numbers of fake Kar98K sniper rifles is apparently enormous. There have been major scandals in the Mauser collecting world with major authorities having been found assembling fakes, as such the debates on correct and incorrect tend to be a bit more heated than on this site.

That is my limited knowledge or understanding of this topic, but I think most of the above is not far off the truth. I have a few of these rifles and like them, but I have found the Kar98K and US collectors to be a far more contentious group of collectors, for reasons that I am not quite sure of, though it may well be the larger amounts of money involved.