I've heard of a few cases - and by that I mean spoken to someone credible who witnessed it personally - where No.4s converted to 7.62mm have cracked the small recoil lug firing in the rain, so the effect of wet ammunition and water in the chamber seems to make sense. Considering that water is not compressible there is no reason why it would not have a similar effect to oil on case adhesion and therefore on thrust against the bolt.
Of course those may have been rifles with imperfectly fitted, possibly replacement, bolts as some DCRA conversions had their bolts replaced.