When it really happens: SHTF...

[Ovidio]

To see a Staff Nurse cry having done 63 hours non stop in London wanting to go home to rest before she went back to treat those suffering, to find NOTHING in the supermarket to sustain her health, I think has had an impact on these bastards as it aired on national television on all channels!

I saw her and felt bad...
But I don’t really think those who did that to her and everybody else will understand.
What I’m finding out in these days is that there are people who think coolly, people who are scared and people who just switch off their civil brain and turn to the beast we all have inside.
I’m worried, I would like to burn and destroy the world out of rage for feeling so powerless...but I don’t and, am ready to bet, will never do it.
Because I have been tought differently, received an education from family and Army which did not include, under any circumstance, that I might step onto others out of panic.
That comes from the upbringing each of us had, but also quite a lot from what life under military rules has tought us all. I thank the Lord that I could do my duty, and that I could do it as an officer in the Alpini.
That has been a life-changer.
And I keep profiting of it!

[Gil Boyd]

As all those that have served will concure with you mate.

---------- Post added at 01:48 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:42 PM ----------

Cuba's health service has a good rep that will never be mentioned in the Western press. They have a drug that can help with Covid19.

COVID-19 surged in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late December 2019 and by January 2020 it had hit Hubei province like a tidal wave, swirling over China and rippling out overseas. The Chinese state rolled into action to combat the spread and care for those infected. Among the 30 medicines the Chinese National Health Commission selected to fight the virus was a Cuban anti-viral drug Interferon Alpha 2b. This drug has been produced in China since 2003, by the enterprise ChangHeber, a Cuban-Chinese joint venture.


Cuban Interferon Alpha 2b has proven effective for viruses with characteristics similar to those of COVID-19. Cuban biotech specialist, Dr Luis Herrera Martinez explained that ‘its use prevents aggravation and complications in patients, reaching that stage that ultimately can result in death.’ Cuba first developed and used interferons to arrest a deadly outbreak of the dengue virus in 1981, and the experience catalysed the development of the island’s now world-leading biotech industry.


The world’s first biotechnology enterprise, Genetech, was founded in San Francisco in 1976, followed by AMGen in Los Angeles in 1980. One year later, the Biological Front, a professional interdisciplinary forum, was set up to develop the industry in Cuba. While most developing countries had little access to the new technologies (recombinant DNA, human gene therapy, biosafety), Cuban biotechnology expanded and took on an increasingly strategic role in both the public health sector and the national economic development plan. It did so despite the US blockade obstructing access to technologies, equipment, materials, finance and even knowledge exchange. Driven by public health demand, it has been characterised by the fast track from research and innovation to trials and application, as the story of Cuban interferon shows.


Interferons are ‘signalling’ proteins produced and released by cells in response to infections which alert nearby cells to heighten their anti-viral defences. They were first identified in 1957 by Jean Lindenmann and Aleck Isaacs in London. In the 1960s Ion Gresser, a US-researcher in Paris, showed that interferons stimulate lymphocytes that attack tumours in mice. In 1970s, US oncologist Randolph Clark Lee, took up this research.


Catching the tail end of US President Carter’s improved relations with Cuba, Dr Clark Lee visited Cuba, met with Fidel Castro and convinced him that interferon was the wonder drug. Shortly afterwards, a Cuban doctor and a haematologist spent time in Dr Clark Lee’s laboratory, returning with the latest research about interferon and more contacts. In March 1981, six Cubans spent 12 days in Finland with the Finnish doctor Kari Cantell, who in the 1970s had isolated interferon from human cells, and had shared the breakthrough by declining to patent the procedure. The Cubans learned to produce large quantities of interferon.


Within 45 days of returning to the island, they had produced their first Cuban batch of interferon, the quality of which was confirmed by Cantell’s laboratory in Finland. Just in time, it turned out. Weeks later Cuba was struck by an epidemic of dengue, a disease transmitted by mosquitos. It was the first time this particularly virulent strand, which can trigger life-threatening dengue haemorrhagic fever, had appeared in the Americas. The epidemic affected 340,000 Cubans with 11,000 new cases diagnosed every day at its peak. 180 people died, including 101 children. The Cubans suspected the CIA of releasing the virus. The US State Department denied it, although a recent Cuban investigation claims to provide evidence that the epidemic was introduced from the US.


Cuba’s Ministry of Public Health authorised the use of Cuban interferon to halt the dengue outbreak. It was done at great speed. Mortality declined. In their historical account, Cuban medical scientists Caballero Torres and Lopez Matilla wrote: ‘It was the most extensive prevention and therapy event with interferon carried out in the world. Cuba began to hold regular symposia, which quickly drew international attention’. The first international event in 1983 was prestigious; Cantell gave the keynote speech and Clark attended with Albert Bruce Sabin, the Polish American scientist who developed the oral polio vaccine.


Convinced about the contribution and strategic importance of innovative medical science, the Cuban government set up the Biological Front in 1981 to develop the sector. Cuban scientists went abroad to study, many in western countries. Their research took on more innovative paths, as they experimented with cloning interferon. By the time Cantell returned to Cuba in 1986, the Cubans had developed the recombinant human Interferon Alfa 2b which has benefited thousands of Cubans since then. With significant state investment, Cuba’s showpiece Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) was opened in 1986. By then Cuba was submerged in another health crisis, a serious outbreak of Meningitis B, which further spurred Cuba’s biotechnology sector.


Cuba’s Meningitis Miracle


In 1976, Cuba was struck by meningitis B and C outbreaks. Since 1916 only a few isolated cases had been seen on the island. Internationally, vaccines existed for Meningitis A and C, but not for B. Cuban health authorities secured a vaccine from a French pharmaceutical company to immunise the population against type C Meningitis. However, in the following years, cases of type B Meningitis began to rise. A team of specialists from different medical science centres was established, led by a woman biochemist, Concepción Campa, to work intensively on finding a vaccine.


By 1984 Meningitis B had become the main health problem in Cuba. After six years of intense work, Campa’s team produced the world’s first successful Meningitis B vaccine in 1988. A member of Campa’s team, Dr Gustavo Sierra recalled their joy: ‘this was the moment when we could say it works, and it works in the worst conditions, under pressure of an epidemic and among people of the most vulnerable age.’ During 1989 and 1990, three million Cubans, those most at risk, were vaccinated. Subsequently, 250,000 young people were vaccinated with the VA-MENGOC-BC vaccine, a combined Meningitis B and C vaccination. It recorded 95% efficacy overall, with 97% in the high-risk three months to six years age group. Cuba’s Meningitis B vaccine was awarded a UN Gold Medal for global innovation. This was Cuba’s meningitis miracle.


‘I tell colleagues that one can work 30 years, 14 hours a day just to enjoy that graph for 10 minutes,’ Agustin Lage, Director of the Centro for Molecular Immunology (CIM) told me, referring to an illustration of the rise and sudden fall of Meningitis B cases in Cuba. ‘Biotechnology started for this. But then the possibilities of developing an export industry opened up, and today, Cuban biotechnology exports to 50 countries.’


Since its first application to combat dengue fever, Cuba’s interferon has shown its efficacy and safety in the therapy of viral diseases including Hepatitis B and C, shingles, HIV-AIDS and dengue. Because it interferes with viral multiplication within cells, it has also been used in the treatment of different types of carcinomas. Time will tell if Interferon Alfa 2b proves to be the wonder drug as far as COVID-19 goes.

[Flying10uk]

Now may be the time for super markets to remove the "special offers" still seen on some of the empty shelves.

Perhaps now is also the time to introduce strict rationing, more strict than is currently carried out by the supper markets, where everyone has a share of what is available even if that share is small.

Unless people have suddenly changed their diets to one that is very rich in fruit and vegetables, one wonders how much of the fruit and veg that has been panic bought will ultimately end up in landfill?

[GeeRam]

Vast majority of UK population can't grasp what social distancing means.....as they are simply too selfish and frankly too thick, which is why this country will be in a serious mess within 2-3 weeks.

An example of the difference in queues outside a UK supermarket this weekend, and what is happening in Italy (and from a friend who lives there, in Spain now also)

[Patrick Chadwick]

It must be so clear for you guys in Italy where the virus has peaked

Gil, I truly regret having to say this, but the virus has not peaked. For anyone who is interested in the statistics (collated by Johns Hopkins and the WHO, I understand), please go to Worldometer

Coronavirus Update (Live): 338,092 Cases and 14,456 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

In Italy, the daily increase is RISING.

Italy Coronavirus: 59,138 Cases and 5,476 Deaths - Worldometer

In other words, the infection is accelerating. It has NOT peaked. And what really disturbs me is that since the Italian emergency measures were activated on 10. March and the incubation period is supposed to be typically 2-4 days, in the 12 days that have since elapsed there should have been a slowing in new infections. That has not occurred. Which raises the question as to whether there is something about the method of transmission that has not yet been recognized.

As for the US, the curve of new infections is extremely steep. In fact, if you choose the logarithmic scaling option it is a roughly straight line, and from this one can see that if nothing happens to slow the virus down, then the USA is heading for 100,000 cases by the end of the month - maybe the end of next week. Then 1 million 10 days later ... and then... there really is no time at all for academic discussion.

And I must stress that this is not my opinion, or something "heard down at the pub", but serious - very serious - figures from an authoritative source.



If the social distancing method does not work, then we are all in very, very deep trouble.

[Gil Boyd]

Everybody has concerns, but there are an awful lot of people who are terrified for themselves their children and their loved ones which is understandable, however, what this ultimately leads to is greed and selfishness, and a survival instinct.

This is when unfortunately Law Enforcement in whatever package that comes in, whether its Police up front/Military or Private Sector it has to take action "for the greater good" and be very effective at it, otherwise it can have an opposite effect.

I think on balance it is a cultural issue, when you weigh up western communities who, generally, are well off and take everything for granted, when I then balance that to Sierra Leone, and other African States I have witnessed, where families had very little or nothing when the Ebola virus struck. It was horrendous, when Red Cross parcels for instance turned up as you can imagine, it was a battle ground for those tasked to restore order, as people clambered for items they deemed a survival need like water and food!

We, in the west have to balance the risks, and I think all the advisory groups including the Chief Medical Officers staff are doing an outstanding job on "real time " assessment of the epidemiology that covers this one virus currently.

Its no time for politics in this, we need as a world to have rational, sensible and educated people in these fields show their true metal and bring to the coal face their expertise to kill this virus soon, which I strongly believe they will do "together".

[Ovidio]

Countermand! Not all factories and businesses will close down.
The Association of the Industry has kicked the butt of the government for the unclear, amateurish way the MP informed “we the people” yesterday night at 23:30... Through facebook...
It is absolutely important to have a clear, professional management of public information.
This is, at the moment, the biggest limit in the way this situation is being handled.
That could lead to big trouble and even more severe losses! Both human and economical.

[Aragorn243]

I don't know the validity of this but it has been reported by an Israeli doctor working in Italy.

They are no longer using respirators on anyone over the age of 60. That if true is not a good sign at all.

Here it has been quiet all day, perhaps because we didn't go anywhere and watched the Mandorilian half the day. I can't find anyone really talking about it. It may simply be the people I'm friends with on social media that are calm, I don't know Will be heading out to play Pokemon probably a little later. Most everyone I see when out is practicing social distancing and using hand sanitizer. Half my pokemon friends are afraid to leave their homes even though they are safe playing from their cars which is what I do. They wrapped temporary fencing around the park playgrounds. No one was frantic yesterday on our last trip to the markets. No shelter in place order happened either. I spent a few hours locating certain "items" and securing them where there is easy access. No where near the feeling they will be needed, the preper part of me is just doing the "BE PREPARED" thing.

Admittedly part of keeping calm today was avoiding the network news. They seem still to be more interested in how they can blame and criticize Trump for all of this.

[22SqnRAE]

Interesting that in Australia we have a commonwealth of six states and two territories headed by the Federal Government. The States manage their jurisdiction in their manner, but come under the Federal Government for the its areas of responsibility, as stated in the Australian Constitution, which include defence and foreign affairs; trade, commerce and currency; immigration; postal services, telecommunications and broadcasting; transportation; most social services and pensions.

Now on the weekend, the Prime Minister was working with each of the State and Territory leader to prepare a unified approach to public health. One of the things that was supposed to happen was that business and workplaces were to remain open, as were schools and other supporting services. This morning, we hear that only one of the states has followed the PMs requirement. The rest have panicked and closed up everything. Utter stupidity.

While reduction is a sensible and measured approach, there is an underlying essential requirement for all democratic states to adhere to and that's continue to generate trade and commerce. You need revenue to generate taxes that pay for pubic benefits. No revenue, no tax, no Government money, no handouts.

Supporting Gil's view, this closure will destroy many businesses, both small and medium. Many self employed people will go broke. The net result, an economy destroyed, on the basis of fear and lack of risk management. The reality of unintended consequences is large when you consider only part of the factual elements of a situation you're trying to manage.

The images of queues at supermarkets in Britain and Italy show the difference between ignorant recklessness and risk measured discipline. I'll go with the latter. In my view, the Premiers and Chief Minsters have adopted the former approach on the weekend, here. I'm really struggling as it's my state Premier that didn't defy the PM's requirements, but I suspect that's more out of ineptitude than sound judgement. And there are other political ramifications that may change that later today...

Another things I believe we need to wake up to. And that's 'social distancing.' It's wrong and foolish to perpetuate. We need physical distancing to minimise the effective spread of droplets from one person to another to stem the transmission of the virus. We do need social connection and closeness in such a time.

So, thanks to Ovidio in the fist place for bringing a global community together to discuss this and support one another through measured discussion and debate on how to effectively manage this. Well done, that man.

[Gil Boyd]

Patrick,
Agree totally, this for us, the UK, is just the beginning. I used the analogy, only to assume a peak must have been reached in an area of Italy, as the virus slows and whether it had been identified, due to social distancing or something else we can all use.
My point was, the way people conduct themselves in these times which I am sure many of us have seen in our combined services to our countries, is exactly what we knew was going to happen and often spelt out in training on mass riots and lawlessness.

Everything will in the next few weeks change forever, a Police Service that will have to adapt to new styles of "Policing by Consent", a Military that will have to instantly absorb the consequences of "civvies" in mealt down and deal with it, without losing their cool, a Government that will have to make some serioulsy drastic decisions, so in short, it is up to the rest of us to keep sensible people dominating the streets and help those who have always been there to save life as best we can.

I am forever an optimist, and I will hope to be back on the range by the end of the year, and hope by that time the virus is defeated in most areas, or at least slowed to a trickle that can be sorted with a vaccine or a drug that is already out there not thought about its use yet.

In the meantime, lets all think of others and remain practising Social Distancing and restraint!