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    Legacy Member Frederick303's Avatar
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    Aragorn243,

    We live not that far apart, you are north of me by a wee bit but I would expect our paths might actually cross at places like the Forks of the Delaware, mount Bethel and perhaps Leesport or Harrisburg. I will say there are some areas which are kind of silly this year in my area, such as K98K and K31 rifles, but certainly not in Enfields.

    I would agree that the prices asked at shows can be silly. I would agree that the asking numbers are huge compared to say a decade ago when the stuff was coming in. But the actual sales prices are not where near as high as Gunbroker and actually falling compared to what I saw just a few years ago. Now I have worked both sides of the isle and every two to three years have a table at the Allentown forks show, including early this year.. How is this for high prices:

    Irish Lee Enfield SMLE MK I*** ER prefix. with a MK III stock but everything else correct including the rear MK I handguard. no interest at 425

    UF55A No 4 MK II gun. Like new. No interest at 535, not at 495, but final sold it at 455, but to get the sale threw in a nice FAL sling.

    Had a K11, ended up selling it for 275 to move it, no interest at 285 price. Nice gun too.

    Had a private JG96/11, rare gun as it was not cut for the stripper clip guide. Best offer 255., kept it pending a gunbroker listing where it might generate more interest.

    1858 brass framed Remington, nice gun with a great patina, had to move it at 130 to get a sale, with left hand holster.

    Did move two K31 rifles at 705 each, with bayonet/scabbards with serials close to rifles (same issue years) but had to use gunbroker to do that, no one locally wanted them at 435 each (with sling muzzle cover, M1918 bayonet and frog), so yes some areas are hot right now on the internet.

    Also did some buying this year. Got a nice Parker 1861 contract musket with a re-tubed barrel for 900. This was a early one (forget barrel maker) but actually made to the real original bore dimensions. Mint bore. You could not have gotten such for that price a decade ago when black powder shooting was much more healthy. A C block P38 mismatch (meaning a factory trophy assembled gun) for 500. A 1889 made M81 Vetterli for 60 bucks at a yard sale (rusty but cleaned up nice). Finally a 1970 S&W 28-2 for 400. Oh yes last year late I got a 1938 M1903 "special target" with a replaced 1942 SA barrel for 550. For the most part these deals sought me out, I was not the first to see them by any means, there really is not a lot of cash out there. When I look at Gunbroker listings I see many guns with high reserves that do not sell and stay on for months before being pulled.

    The way I see it the high prices on the internet have set up a Mexican stand off between buyer and sellers. Everyone wants to set a new high on gunbroker. Folks ask too much at shows. No one comes to shows. So you can pick off good deals at shows if you talk to people and give good deals to get good deals.

    In any case I see plenty of over priced Mil-Surplus but they do not move. That is what I see. I also see fewer and fewer collectors at the shows. That is why I saw prices will not climb long term. I also can look at demographics:

    Baby boomers (1946 to 1964) were a 76 million cohort, Generation X were a 68.5 million cohort (1965 to 1983), Millennials are a 73 million cohort (1984 to 2002).

    Not only are the numbers falling but the racial mixture is changing. Baby boomers were 85 % white, Gen X was closer to 75% and Millennials around 63%. Of course it is horrid and beastly of me to notice, but white males show a lot more interest in weapons of the European mid 20th century suicide wars than Asians, Blacks and Hispanics. It is just reality, though no one is supposed to notice. In terms of disposable income Gen X is not as well off as Boomers, and Millenials have been crapped on being even less flush than Gen x.

    So pure numbers demographic interest and cash all tend towards fewer collectors coming up for our obsolete military rifles/arms. Maybe not today, but I can safely say as I watch my older baby boomers (birth years from 1948 to 1959) try to sell their arms they are getting no where the interest or money they would like nor is the situation likely to get better as time goes by. let there be no doubt, there are very large collections accumulated by Baby boomers that will have to be disposed of in the coming 2 decades and they will sell for less than the current prices in real dollar terms.

    Oh by the way if you doubt that, it matches the similar decline and death of competitive rifle shooting. Come to a BCF&G Swissicon rifle match and I can show you the trends over decades, I have the record to back it up. What I write of is real.

    Patience is a virtue right now.

  2. Thank You to Frederick303 For This Useful Post:


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