Prices and the ecomony, ...

[Bodyman]

I thought this might get a bit more discussion, but I guess not.

I think what I am seeing is two different things; I have generally seen good quality items slowly diminshing over these last 15 to 20 years - there just isn't the good stuff to buy any more. With the same demand, in good ecomonic times this should mean that prices would go up (and possibly skyrocket). But in bad times there just isn't the same demand, yet prices have slowly risen or worst case have held steady and just stayed the same.

I think, Aragorn, you are referring to somethign else I have seen - the guys buying this stuff are often retired and playing with completely discretionary money - extra 'fun money'. With nothing else to spend their fun money on, they don't really have to respond to the same pressures that other markets must address. Without them prices may well have had to drop along with the rest of the world's ...

To me, this means that when the economy recovers a bit and demand picks up (from all those guys that are strapped right now), prices of some of these best items are going to launch upwards and we will be looking back on these things wondering why we were not buying ... (and then have to remember why, ...).

That is my current read anyway, ... but as with anything ecomonic, missjudge one variable and the answer flips 180 degrees ... (economincs is nothing more than the art of using big words and lots of numbers to flesh out an opinion and try to explain why something happened ... ).

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[Aragorn243]

I really can't say much for the world wide or national market, I don't travel that extensively.

Locally, you simply can't really buy anything anymore because it isn't available. Yet interest in WWII has skyrocketed since the release of Band of Brothers and Saving Private Ryan. So perhaps the reasons you don't see much anymore is because it is bought as soon as it becomes available.

In any case, I've been attending a WWII weekend at Reading PA for the past half dozen or so years and the prices there have gone up dramatically.

I understand what you are saying about a down economy. But for those that have the extra cash, these things are an escape from the reality around them.

I personally don't understand the guns at auction deal. These people are either nuts or the only place they see guns is at this auction. I've been going to this auction off and on for years. The last gun I purchased was probably well over 10 years ago and was an Australian Cadet Rifle. It had been sporterized a bit and I probably myself went a bit overboard at the time but it has more than doubled in value from what I paid for it in that 10 years and this is on the "real world" market. I still go to the auction for the non-gun items they sell, mostly hunting collectibles but militaria is usually in there as well. Seems like the only stuff that goes cheap is the stuff that no one can identify. I recently got a Brazilian pioneer sword for about a third of its value because they didn't know what it was. I didn't either but I liked the way it looked, knew it was military and probably from the WWI time frame. I also have a small list of guns and/or bayonets that I crazily hope will actually go for a reasonable price but I usually don't even get involved in the bidding, they just rocket past my top dollar as I sit there in amazement that anyone is willing to go that high when they could drive 2 miles to the gun shop and pay just a bit more than my top dollar for it.

I think the only bargains to be had these days are at yard sales where someone is cleaning things out of the attic. Even then, most people seem to expect the items are worth something and want some enormous price for it. I got VERY lucky last spring at a yard sale. I read a handwritten sign on the table about a WWII US Navy knife. "ask to see" This was late afternoon and I figured it was gone, almost walked away but decided to ask. Yes, he still had it. So I figured as he was going back to get it that the price had to be so high no one wanted it. He showed it to me, it is in excellent condition, and he's telling me it was his fathers and he just is afraid someone is going to cut themselves with it. We get down to price, I ask and he tells me $15.00. Usually at this point at a yard sale, you counter with something lower but I didn't even bother. He told me knew it was worth more but he wanted it to go to a home where someone would appreciate it, which I do, it's in my safe right now.

But that story is about it, in 15 years it is the only decent militaria item I've found that was not overpriced or just more expensive than I could pay at the time.

Flea markets, forget it. Here, people are out there with flashlights at three and four in the morning watching people take things out of the boxes and putting them on the tables. If anything of value is there, they've gotten it early. I'm not willing to go t that effort so when I get there at the ungodly late hour of 7am, it's gone.

WWII and Civil War items are very hot. Vietnam items are getting there. I think you can probably still find some bargains for the other wars but then those items are few and far between.